The Iran-Israel war enters its fourth week with the claim of the U.S. President Donald Trump that Tehran is enthusiastic about some form of deal that will reduce the hostilities but Iranian officials refute any negotiations. On March 23, Trump informed the world that he had had very good and productive talks with a respected Iranian leader, who was not Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, but had delivered major points of agreement. He gave Iran a five-day deadline to close the Strait of Hormuz or it would be attacked by the U.S. on its power plant, repeating, “Iran wants to make a deal.”
The optimistic tone of Trump is the opposite of stonewalling of Tehran. Claims by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who called them fakenews to control oil markets, entracted it on X: “No negotiations with the US. The Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed that the U.S. messages had been received through the friendly countries such as Pakistan and Oman, but no direct or indirect negotiations were made since the war broke out on February 28. Al Jazeera broadcasts the continued missile attacks and swarms of drones by Iran, and Israel bombing the suburbs of Tehran.
Flashback: The war began after Israel attacked the Iranian nuclear facilities which were assisted by U.S. B-2 bombers and it damaged the air force, navy, and missile production of Tehran. In response, Iran mined Hormuz and trapped 50+ tankers and crippled the world oil supply to $105/barrel. Trump is proud to say the U.S.-Israel alliance is trampling down the opponent, and the assets of Iran are completely destroyed. However, the deaths are piling up, more than 200 U.S. soldiers killed, thousands of Iranians, and blackouts by targeted grids.
Diplomatic chess plays out. The Trump envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, supposedly spoke with the middlemen who demanded that Iran should clear its enriched uranium caches in order to be at peace. In the claims by Tehran, it accuses Washington of purchasing time to continue escalation, and other mediators such as South Korea urge ceasefires. Trump threatened to reopen Hormuz soon, on condition of an agreement, unloading the LPG crunch in India where two vessels have just passed through the Iranian passage at 2M apiece.
International markets are shaking: Shares fall, energy surges in spite of promises. Trump informs House GOP that the suffering is a short-term price worth paying, promising to carry it to the end because he wants to see total defeat. Israel threatens of wiped-out destiny in absence of U.S. assistance.
For India, stakes skyrocket. PM Modi called on Parliament alertness/unity and got ally transits, 15% LPG hikes hit 30 crore homes. The reserves represent a 10 days coverage; Argentina doubles imports. Rupee 88/USD puts strength to test.
Such refusals further increase distrust in Iran by unsuccessful JCPOA negotiations in 2018. Will Trump dealmaking, which is admired as being perfect, cut through, or energize more drones? LIVE news: New Israeli attacks on Bandar Abbas; U.S. goes on Hormuz deadline. Oil teeters, world watches.
