With the escalating tensions in the middle east, the United States, Iran, and some regional mediators are also making more efforts to ensure a 45 day ceasefire. A special report on Axios has verified that this bi-step diplomatic drive is aimed at halting the hostilities and providing a roadmap to a long-term solution and that President Donald Trump has a long deadline. According to sources acquainted with the negotiations, there are slim prospects of a partial deal in 48 hours, but see it as the final opportunity to avert catastrophic strikes on civilian infrastructure.
Diplomatic Gamers Interfere.
The mediation is spearheaded by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey who fly proposals between Washington and Tehran. It is further supplemented with urgent backchannel messages between the US envoy Steve Witkoff and the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Trump, who initially set a deadline of 10 days expiring Monday, on Tuesday 8 PM ET via Truth Social, said that he is willing to be flexible, but will strike the Iranian energy grid and Gulf installations in case no deal is achieved.
Iran desires assurances of Gaza-type feeble truces of paper agreements that fail to deter strikes. The mediators take into consideration incremental actions, including partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the management of uranium stockpile which is linked to the eventual peace agreement. One of the US said that new proposals were not yet accepted, but there was hope of de-escalation.
Increased Danger of Betterment as Time Passes.
The war broke out on February 28 when the US-Israeli attacks and Iranian revenge ignited the war that is threatening a full-scale war. The phrases of Trump to Axios emphasize the US engagement: We are deep into Iran, it implies that Trump will be eager to reach an outcome. Nonetheless, in the past- negotiations never reached a point where Iran would accept short-term ceasefires but compensation and withdrawal of bases.
It is 45 days to bargain Phase 2: a full war victory. The extension can be extended in case of stalling. Reopening Hormuz and dilution of the enriched uranium will be based on the trust-building efforts on both sides.
Regional Ramifications
Gulf states prepare to go down, as they worry of retaliatory attacks to energy and water plants. Israel is documented to have been involved in briefings by the sources of Israel and the main focus is to prevent escalation. Qatar refused to lead the ground on grounds of complexities.
It may be that victory will make the oil markets, already jumpy, be tamed and pull the international community back on its feet. Loss creates anarchy, and Trump is a threat of infrastructure attacks. Everybody looks towards the ultimate shuttle diplomacy of mediators with the onset of April 7.
