President Donald Trump declared unconditional 25% tariffs on all US business with Iranian nations that do business with Iran, increasing the pressure on the economy as Iran is having a fierce crackdown on national protests. The post on the January 12, 2026, Truth Social stated: Effective immediately, any Country that conducts business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay 25% Tariff on any and all business being conducted with the United States. The order was not accompanied by any details of its implementation and did not have a legal foundation, which surprised markets and allies.
Tariff War Erupts in Iran Protests.
Unrest, wave of since December 2025, triggered 40% inflation, subsidy reduction: dozens killed, rallies in Mashhad, a million-strong, have sent security forces on the run. Trump exaggerated videos referring to the fact that the Iran is at the door of FREEDOM with hints of the military actions and financial sanctions. Tehran Foreign Ministry maintains an open channel with US ambassador Steve Witkoff but threatens war readiness.
China struck the biggest blow: the largest Iran Iranian oil buyer in the world ($22B imports, 90% of Tehran crude) Beijing threatened to take all the needed actions against unilateral jurisdiction. Secondary blow to India as 50 per cent oil tariffs by Russia; Turkey, Iraq, UAE, Russia as well.
| Iran’s Top Partners | Value of Trade | US Tariff Effect. |
| China | $22B oil | 25% on $500B US trade |
| India | oil/pharma 15B | Fifty percent Russian hit |
| Turkey | $10B | NATO friction |
| Iraq/UAE | $8B | Escalation in the region |
Maximum Pressure 2.0 Mechanics
IEEPA power probably used (emergency powers bypassing Congress), similar to fentanyl tariffs at Supreme Court. No reply on affected goods, collection mechanisms, waivers, at White House. WTO difficulties, G7 divisions, as China retaliates, predictors.
Oil market shock: Iran is now exporting 2M bpd even with sanctions; tariffs are driving the rapid diversification away to Saudi and US shale by the buyers. There was a post announcement spike in Brent of 3% post announcement.
Tehran Response and Global Backlash.
China embassy: “Strongly rebuffes unlawful sanctions. India silent silent post-Russian oil precedent. The crackdown becomes even more severe by Khamenei who says: Protests are used by foreign presidents.
US briefing looming: Trump considers cyber attacks, air strikes and tariffs as protesters go to 50 cities.
Trump economic surrounds Iran regime lives I American tariffs strangle final lifelines with streets on fire. Peak pressure redux threatens Middle East flash-mob or Tehran failure. Markets stiffen, ayatollahs sink.
