A succession of interviews by the Foreign Minister of Iran Abbas Araghchi has made a shock move that Tehran is already prepared to make concessions so as to re-establish a nuclear pact with the United States. On 14 February 2026, Arakhchi told CNN and European media that we are even willing to negotiate in good faith as long as we respect each other. It is among possible cold ceasefires after years of frozen negotiations since the US withdrawal in 2018 out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
This comes at the time when the tension in the Middle East is on the rise. Oil price is bet to be high at 95 barrels per gallon because of the Israeli attacks on Syria and Yemen on proxies and the Red Sea unrests caused by Houthi. The impact on the economy of Iran which sells 1.5m barrels per day despite the sanction has been very bad: the inflation levels, 35, rial, have fallen by 40 percent last year. The agreement would unlock a hundred billion dollars of frozen capital and lift oil sanctions that his reformist government of President Masoud Pezeshkian needs.
What compromises? Araghchi suggested to enrich uranium at a maximum of 20 percent (to 60 percent towards the weapons grade), and increasing the IAEA inspection and limiting the extent of ballistic missile range to 2,000 kilometers. In its turn, Iran insists on the full removal of the sanctions, the acknowledgment of their civilian nuclear program and the assurance of future withdrawal by the US that remain during the Biden years negotiations that have failed in 2022.
The re-elected Trump administration in the US has become more assertive implying that the nuclear development of Iran by the US would be considered as red line. Low profile diplomacy of Oman and Qatar is speculated in Foggy Bottom however. The first Trump term, however, had also killed the JCPOA but now is providing advisors such as Steve Witkoff with a better offer including terms relating to the security of the region in order to counter the Iranian strengthened Hezbollah and Hamas.
Challenges persist. The hardliners in the Tehran Majlis loathe the compromises as an act of weakness as the Supreme Leader, Khamenei, vetoes. The Netanyahu of Israel is threatening to destroy the underground Iranian plant of Fordow or he will not give a deal. This trade diversion of Iran to China which is estimated as 40 billion trade in 2025 complicates western developments economic wise.
The revived deal would stabilize energy markets and less proxy wars and pave a trading way worth 50 billion dollars across the globe. This is case India has been a huge Iranian oil customer (pre sanctions 400, 000 bdf) that they will face less imports at rupee-rial swaps. On the international scale, it eradicates the risks of escalator and IAEA has raised alarm that the breakout time on the Iran case has already reduced to just weeks.
Olive branch of hope by Araghchi is a revival of Vienna failures. JCPOA 2.0 could occur in 2026 in case of Trump, possibly at a summit at the Gulf. Iran runs a risk of being left alone and exposed to the instability of the world. According to Araghchi, diplomacy has substitutes. Washington is taking the initiative.
